Each module contains 3 ECTS. You choose a total of 10 modules/30 ECTS in the following module categories:
- 12-15 ECTS in technical scientific modules (TSM)
TSM modules teach profile-specific specialist skills and supplement the decentralised specialisation modules. - 9-12 ECTS in fundamental theoretical principles modules (FTP)
FTP modules deal with theoretical fundamentals such as higher mathematics, physics, information theory, chemistry, etc. They will teach more detailed, abstract scientific knowledge and help you to bridge the gap between abstraction and application that is so important for innovation. - 6-9 ECTS in context modules (CM)
CM modules will impart additional skills in areas such as technology management, business administration, communication, project management, patent law, contract law, etc.
In the module description (download pdf) you find the entire language information per module divided into the following categories:
- instruction
- documentation
- examination
A proper understanding of the current state and probable future development of a market is key to any successful business development. The module Market Analysis and Forecasting provides the foundations of analysis of complex socio-economic systems. It puts students in place to autonomously plan, design and execute their own qualitative and quantitative analysis. Development of well-founded forecasts and scenarios completes the understanding of customer data, markets and the socio-economic environment. Tools for the definition and the analysis of company reactions to potential future market scenarios will complete the module, allowing for transformation of market inputs into strategic choices.
Prerequisites
Good knowledge of English.
Bachelor degree in Business Administration or Engineering.
Learning Objectives
Students have the knowledge and the ability to understand and analyze a market as a complex socio-economic system. They are able to identify the most relevant factors determining the market behavior, to identify the causal relation between these factors and to describe socio-economic systems by means of qualitative modelling. Students understand and apply key concepts of the theory of complex systems such as observability, controllability, time variance or invariance, randomness or determinacy of factors, linear or nonlinear, static or dynamic behavior and their impacts on the overall system behavior. Students apply qualitative and quantitative methods for model validation, including basic behavior analysis and statistics. In practical examples they learn to analyze, predict and steer such systems. Finally students are able to present the analysis results in terms of descriptive scenarios using different visualization techniques.
Contents of Module
The module includes the following topics:
1. Market modelling
- Understanding the market as a complex, socio-economic system
- Outlook: system modelling in a broader context
- Identification of key factors determining the dynamic, time variant and stochastic behavior of a market
- Systemic market analysis
- Experiencing complex market behavior, steering complex systems
- Model validation
- Developing scenarios describing the market future
- From qualitative to quantitative models
- Prospects and limits of modelling
2. Case studies on quantitative statistical market modelling
- Data structuring and cleaning
- k-Means clustering for customer feedback analysis
- rfm segmentation for customer segmentation
- Linear-multiple and non-linear regression for demand forecasting
- Time series analysis for demand forecasting
The use and benefits of each discussed topic will be explained, methods for solving the analysis tasks will be presented in an accessible and non-technical manner. The focus will be on the validity and generalizability of the results/conclusions and how they will be included in decision making.
Teaching and Learning Methods
The module is taught by theory inputs, case studies and a software tool.
Literature
[1] Sterman, J. D. (2000). Business Dynamics. Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World. Boston: McGraw-Hill. ISBN 978-0071241076. (Recommended.)
[2] Rob J. Hyndman, George Athanasopoulos, Forecasting: principles and practice, OTexts, 2013. The book is freely available as an online book at www.otexts.org/fpp. Alternatively, a print version is available: ISBN # 0987507109. (Required.)
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